According to a new forecast released by e -market, US e-commerce sales will increase by 18% this year due to the impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which forced more shoppers online. However, the increase in new online orders has not done so for the overall hit that the US retail sector will take this year, the firm noted. Analysts estimate that total US retail sales, including auto and fuel, will decline by 10.5% in 2020 to $ 4.894 trillion – not seen since 2016.
This is also faster than the 8.2% drop seen last time in 2009 amid the recession.
“This is the fastest consumer spending freeze in the US in decades,” said eMarketer senior forecast analyst Cindy Liu in a report. In just a few weeks, as Americans took shelter, retail sales fell dramatically in March. With sales hitting their lowest point of the year in Q2, consumer activity will take several years to return to normal levels, ”she predicted.
In fact, forecasts predict that total retail sales will not rebound to pre-epidemic levels (such as 2019 levels) by 2022.
Physical retail is reducing overall retail weight over the long term. This year, brick-and-mortar retail sales will decline 14.0% to $ 4.184 trillion. And it may take up to five years for offline sales to return to pre-epidemic levels.
The report states that e-commerce is not strong enough to compensate for those losses – it reduces the severity of retail’s decline. In 2020, e-commerce sales will grow 18% to $ 709.78 billion, accounting for 14.5% of total US retail sales.
Factors contributing to this report do not provide an in-depth focus on why overall retail sales will remain down despite the reopening of stores, but will include clear effects related to the coronovirus-triggered recession – such as job loss and job insensitivity. , Both of which motivate consumers to reduce their spending. In addition, many consumers still continue to avoid brick-and-mortar retail altogether, rather than placing their orders online. In addition, with many consumers now working from home, sales of apparel and accessories have increased drastically.
The apparel and accessories category is generally the second largest in e-commerce, for example, but will grow only 8.6% as consumers spend discretionary, away from non-essential purchases.
Meanwhile, other e-commerce categories including food and beverage and health / beauty / personal care are very high – 58.5% in the former and 32.4% in the latter.
Principal analyst of e-commerce Andrew Lipsman said, “Everything we’re seeing with e-commerce is unprecedented, with growth expected to surpass everything we’ve seen since the Great Recession.” is.” “Some e-commerce practices such as online grocery shopping and click-and-collect have catapulted permanently three or four years into just three or four months in the future,” he said.
The shift to online grocery has been particularly beneficial to Walmart, which generally cites online grocery as an important factor in increasing its overall e-commerce sales. The new report from the emulator also states that the US is behind Walmart Amazon for the first time. Will overtake eBay as the No. 2 e-commerce retailer. It expects Walmart to see more than 35% growth in its e-commerce sales in 2020, which will grow to claim a 5.8% share of the US e-commerce market.
Target, Best Buy, The Home Depot, and Costco will also grow.
But predictably, Amazon will overtake.
“Amazon will increase its e-commerce market share to 38.0% and extend its reign of dominance,” Lipsman said.